Games and odds · free tool

Colour prediction game: what the name means and what chance looks like

Q: What does “prediction” mean in a colour prediction game?

It names your pick: you choose a colour or number before the result is shown. It does not mean anyone can forecast the result. If rounds are random and independent, a pick is a guess whatever the game is called.

Q: Are long runs of one colour a sign of a pattern?

No. Over hundreds of fair rounds, runs of seven or eight in a row are ordinary, and a run of ten turns up more often than people expect. A run is a record of what happened. It does not make the other colour due.

Q: Does a good run of right colour calls show skill?

Not by itself. A short run of right calls is something blind guessing produces often. The tool above works out the exact chance that luck alone matches a record, so you can see how unusual yours really is.

Q: How often is a blind guess right when I call a colour?

It depends on how many digits carry that colour. As an illustration, a colour that covers 4 digits of 10 is right 40% of the time. Your app states its own chances, and the tool above takes whatever figure you enter.

Q: Does anything I type here leave my phone?

No. The tool runs in your browser and works everything out on your own device. Nothing you enter is uploaded, and there are no accounts.

A colour prediction game asks you to pick before the result. See what the word prediction really means, how long runs of one colour are ordinary, and what a record of right calls can show.

Tool · runs in your browserNothing is uploaded

1. What random rounds look like

about 8longest streak of one colour that chance alone usually gives in 300 rounds

69.5%chance of 7 or more in a row of a colour you name in advance

91.2%chance of 7 or more in a row of either colour

13.4%chance of 10 or more in a row of a colour you name in advance

25.0%chance of 10 or more in a row of either colour

In 300 fair rounds with a 50% chance of green, a run of 7 or more of one colour you name in advance turns up 69.5% of the time, and a run of 10 or more 13.4% of the time. If either colour counts, the figures are 91.2% and 25.0%. Streaks like these are what chance looks like, and none of them says anything about the next round.

Chance of a streak of at least this length somewhere in 300 rounds (green 50%)
Streak of at least	A colour you name in advance	Either colour
5 in a row	99.4%	>99.9%
6 in a row	91.3%	99.4%
7 in a row	69.5%	91.2%
8 in a row	44.2%	69.4%
10 in a row	13.4%	25.0%
12 in a row	3.5%	6.9%

2. Could luck alone have done that?

Type what a predictor, app or channel claims. The tool shows how often a blind guesser would do as well, worked out exactly. It predicts nothing and reads no results.

54%hit rate claimed: 27 right out of 50 calls

3.14%chance that blind guessing, right 40% of the time, does at least this well

1 in 32blind guessers that look this good

31 of 1,000blind guessers in the crowd that would look this good

± 13.9 pointshow far luck alone moves a hit rate over this many calls

63calls before a hit rate this high would happen to blind guessing less than 1 time in 100

A predictor that gets 27 of 50 calls right has a hit rate of 54%. Blind guessing, right 40% of the time, does at least that well 3.14% of the time, so among 1,000 blind guessers about 31 would look this good. If the same hit rate held over about 63 calls, blind guessing would manage it less than 1 time in 100. A hit rate in the past says nothing about the next call.

Blind guessing over 50 calls, right 40% of the time, with 1,000 guessers
Hit rate	Right out of 50	Chance blind guessing does this well	Guessers that would look this good
55%	28	1.60%	16
60%	30	0.34%	3
65%	33	0.02%	under 1
70%	35	<0.01%	under 1
80%	40	<0.01%	under 1

A colour prediction game is a name for rounds in which you pick a colour or number before the result is shown. The word prediction describes your pick, not any ability to forecast: if rounds are drawn at random and independently, nothing in the earlier results points to the next one. In 300 fair rounds the chance of 7 or more in a row of a colour you name in advance is 69.5%.

Calling a colour is a bet on a group of digits. In the illustration used here a colour covers 4 digits of 10 and is right 40% of the time by blind guessing, which is why any method has to be judged against that rate, not against half.

A trend chart makes a run look like a message. It is a record of what has already happened, and in independent rounds the past only records. Change the number of rounds in the tool above and press the button again to see how often chance alone gives a run of any length.

The tool runs in your browser and sends nothing anywhere.

Common questions

What does “prediction” mean in a colour prediction game?

It names your pick: you choose a colour or number before the result is shown. It does not mean anyone can forecast the result. If rounds are random and independent, a pick is a guess whatever the game is called.

Are long runs of one colour a sign of a pattern?

No. Over hundreds of fair rounds, runs of seven or eight in a row are ordinary, and a run of ten turns up more often than people expect. A run is a record of what happened. It does not make the other colour due.

Does a good run of right colour calls show skill?

Not by itself. A short run of right calls is something blind guessing produces often. The tool above works out the exact chance that luck alone matches a record, so you can see how unusual yours really is.

How often is a blind guess right when I call a colour?

It depends on how many digits carry that colour. As an illustration, a colour that covers 4 digits of 10 is right 40% of the time. Your app states its own chances, and the tool above takes whatever figure you enter.

Does anything I type here leave my phone?

No. The tool runs in your browser and works everything out on your own device. Nothing you enter is uploaded, and there are no accounts.

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The full tool

Prediction simulatorThe full prediction simulator, with every setting.